Every strategy starts with a what-if.
What if we lowered prices? Changed incentives? Reallocated investment? That unseen alternative is the counterfactual.
We’re a boutique economic consulting firm that specializes in generating data to answer those what-if questions with methods from the frontier of economic research. Our team has extensive experience helping partners use counterfactuals to drive their strategy forward.
Our Work
Overview
Our team of applied economists and data scientists has a long track record of helping large organizations make decisions grounded in evidence. We specialize in separating correlation from causation in existing data, and in designing and analyzing experiments. Our close ties to academic partners bring cutting-edge research methods directly into our client work.
We have worked with governments on six continents and with firms across industries including financial services, private equity, insurance, healthcare, transportation, retail, technology, and professional sports. Our experiments have reached millions of customers, shaped pricing and policy decisions, and produced research published in leading economics journals.
Evidence
Field Experiments
When a decision can be tested, we test it. We design and analyze randomized experiments that isolate the effect of a change and show when and why it works.
Observational Methods
When randomization isn’t possible, we look for natural sources of variation in existing data, such as a policy cutoff or staggered rollout, or apply other causal inference methods that adjust for confounding factors.
Questions
Our work often begins with a decision a partner is facing. Many turn on a few key questions:
- Cause and Effect
- What actually drove the results we’re seeing?
- Customer Response
- How will people react to a change?
- Targeting
- Who responds most, and to what?
- Allocation
- Where will the next dollar do the most good?
- Impact
- Is it working? Is it worth the cost?
Delivery
Advise
We work alongside leadership to pinpoint the causal questions that underlie client strategy, then answer them with evidence.
Build
We build experimentation and machine learning into the systems you already run, so evidence becomes part of how decisions get made.
Equip
We help client teams build fluency in experimentation and causal inference, so evidence informs decisions at every level.
What’s your what-if?
Get in touch to start the conversation.